Post-Election analysis for 2008

alg_obama_familyElection Day is now behind us and now we are going to compare The Political Predictor Blog predictions to the actual results.

We are not going into the mention the races we won in Congress, just the ones that we lost. Mention the winning ones will just take too much time.

So here we go!

In the Presidential race, this website predicted that Obama would win 353 electoral votes. He ended up winning 364 electoral votes. The only state that was predicted incorrectly was Indiana.

In the US Senate, this website has currently predicted all of the winners. There are two Senate seats still in the air. Minnesota is doing a recount and Alaska is still counting. This website predicted the Democratic candidates to win both races.

In the House of Representatives, there was a number of races that were up. Many of those races were surprises. The others were expected to be close. Here are the races that this website predicted incorrectly. The actual result is in <span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>bold.</span>

* = incumbent

Alabama 2nd
Jay Love (R) 51.6%, Bobby Bright (D)48.4%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Jay Love (R) 49.7%, Bobby Bright (D)50.3%</span>

Berkowitz (D) 52.2%, Young* (R) 47.1%, Wright (AKIP) .7%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Brekowitz (D) 43.9%, Young* (R) 51.6%, Wright (AKIP) 4.3%</span>

California 4th
Charlie Brown (D) 51.2%, Tom McClintock (R) 48.8%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>This race is currently too close to call</span>

Illinois 10th
Dan Seals (D) 50.5%, Mark Kirk* (R) 49.5%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Dan Seals (D) 45.4%, Mark Kirk* (R) 54.6%</span>

Kansas 2nd
Nancy Boyda* (D) 52%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 48%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Nancy Boyda* (D) 477%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 52.3%</span>

Louisiana 6th
Donald Cazayoux* (D) 51, William Cassidy (R) 43%, Michael Jackson (I) 6%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Donald Cazayoux* (D) 40.3%, William Cassidy (R) 48.1%, Michael Jackson (I) 11.6%</span>

Maryland 1st
Andrew Harris (R) 53%, Frank Kratovil (D) 47%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>This race is currently too close to call</span>

Minnesota 6th
Tinklenberg (D) 48%, Bachmann* (R) 46%, Anderson (MIN) 6%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Tinklenberg (D) 42.9%, Bachmann* (R) 46.9%, Anderson (MIN) 10.2%</span>

New Jersey 7th
Stender (D) 49.2%, Lance (R) 48.8, Hsing (I) 2%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Stender (D) 45%, Lance (R) 55%, Hsing (I) 0%</span>

Ohio 15th
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 51%, Steven Stivers (R) 46%, Others 3%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>This race is currently too close to call</span>

Pennsylvania 11th
Barletta (R) 54%, Kanjorski* (D) 46%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>Barletta (D)48.4%, Kanjorski* (D) 51.6%</span>

Virginia 5th
Virgil Goode (R-Inc) 51.5%, Tom Perriello (D) 48.5%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>This race is currently too close to call</span>

Washington 8th
David Reichert (R-Inc) 50.4%, Darcy Burner (D) 49.6%
<span style=”FONT-WEIGHT: bold”>This race is currently too close to call</span>

There are five Congressional races that are still too close to call. We will update this site as soon as we have final results.

But as of now, here is the final summary:

Presidential Race:
This site – 50 correct, 1 incorrect.
Crystal Ball – 49 correct, 2 incorrect
Final – Political Predictor +1

Senatorial Races:
This site – 32 currently correct
Crystal Ball – 32 currently correct
Final – Tied

House Predictions:
This site – 422 correct, 8 incorrect (current)
Crystal Ball -421 correct, 9 incorrect (current)
Final – Political Predictor +1

Current Final Predictions:
This site – 98.25% accurate
Crystal Ball – 97.67% accurate


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