House Race Ratings: Post Primary Edition

With the primary complete we take another look at where things stand now in the House races across the state. As it stands now, the Democrats will almost certainly pick up seats in November, thanks in large measure to the first legislative redistricting following the passage of the Fair Districts Amendment.

The Democrats enter the fall having already more or less secured 34 seats (those we term as Safe or Likely Democratic) while the GOP has only secured 54 seats (Safe or Likely Republican) meaning they have to defend far more seats in competitive races than anytime in the last decade plus.

Many of the seats that are in the Leans Republican category are truly “toss-up” seats where the Democrats would have had an excellent chance to win had they recruited a top tier challenger OR were willing to spend money trying to gain the seat. Several of the “toss-up” races would be Leans Democrat again if the candidate recruitment were better and fundraising commitment were higher from the party. According to a TPH estimate we conducted after the new maps were finalized, the Democrats should win 50-52 House seats, the GOP 55-57, and the rest should be up for grabs. This means that the chamber itself should be a target for a Democratic takeover within a few election cycles.

The Senate is a different story regarding possible competitiveness. Thanks to a cowardly Supreme Court decision, the GOP should have 22-25 seats and a comfortable majority for the entire decade. We will take a look at the State Senate next week, but with the exception of a few races unaffected by the primaries, their is not a whole lot of excitement there:  in fact the primaries were much more vital to deciding the composition of the Senate as a body in 2013 and 2014 than the General Election will be. Thanks to the court, the Gaetz plan will prevent us from having more than a handful of competitive partisan elections for Senate seats until at least 2022.

The Democrats despite not recruiting top tier candidates in many winnable seats have a real opportunity to make major gains in 2012. The nature of a Presidential Election year plus fairer House districts could have made this a watershed year for the party in turning the two decade tide of major legislative losses and embarrassments.

Below are our latest ratings. Please leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep  Leans NPA
HD 24 (Open) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 1  (Ingram)  HD 34 (Smith)
HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 55 (Open) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 58 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 74 (Holder) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 42 (Horner) HD 77 (Open) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 50 (Open) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 59 (Open) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 65 (Nehr) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 66 (Ahern) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 71 (Boyd) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 85 (Rooney) HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 93 (Moritas) HD 18 (Open)
HD 114 (Fresen) HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7  (Open)
HD 21 (Open)
HD 27 (Open)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 68  (Open)
HD 69  (Open)
HD 72 (Pilon)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)
HD 14  (Jones) HD 86 (Pafford) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 104 (Open)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Julien)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)

11 thoughts on “House Race Ratings: Post Primary Edition

  1. Is there any possibility for actual support for Adam Tebrugge in 71? Boyd is bright red on insurance issues, and Adam is one of the brightest minds in the state. One would think that we would want the best and the brightest…not the most marketable. However, that is probably a pipe dream…

  2. Even with little money the numbers in HD 85 and Rooney’s voting record make Lutrin a real possibility. I would move that to toss up. Otherwise looks good, though I am not sure Gustafson in HD 89 is going to get as much traction as the party thinks with the late entry and money sucked up. Capisatro in HD 93 going nowhere.

    I think 115 could be the upset. Look for Jefferey Doc Solomon to be a real contender!

  3. Gustafson has an opportunity if he works with the leadership and runs to the middle in the coastal district that is unhappy with Obama’s free spending . Lutrin a joke run by the both the liberal nuts and the North County gadflies. Pafford and Berman will be fine. We support both.

  4. 34 will be won by Argenziano.

    Look at how many more seats are in play under Rod Smith and Christian Ulvert than ever before. I think you ought to give them done credit instead of constantly bashing them.

  5. Locally all the Democrats support you and feel the party again is not taking this area seriously and are upset. We know you are a strong candidate and will do us proud.

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