Congressional Race Ratings – October 21: A Look at the Five Closest Races

CD 2 Moved to Toss Up

National political analysts long ago wrote of the chances for the Democrats to pick up this seat but as we’ve reported for weeks, Democrat Al Lawson has had lots of momentum on the ground despite the general trend against Democrats at all other levels across the state. Recent polling has confirmed our feeling that this race was getting closer. A composite average of polling provided by Talking Points Memo indicates this race is a dead heat.

CD 9 Remains Leans Democrat

Todd Long is over performing relative to past Republicans according to recent polls. Alan Grayson’s continued inability to put away Long despite a sizable campaign war chest will be encouraging for any future Republican challenger.

CD 18  Remains Leans Republican

Last week we felt that with the movement in the polls recently all favoring the GOP at the top of the ticket, down-ballot races are being profoundly affected. The combination of growing Romney strength on the Treasure Coast as well as Allen West’s negative ads prompted us to move this race into the “Leans Republican” column. The Republican turnout apparatus in the area is far more advanced and impressive than the Democratic turnout infrastructure and in a close race they must be favored. Now that West’s ad campaign has raised Murphy’s negatives, West will have an advantage, though not an overwhelming one heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

Additionally, last week’s debate between the two candidates was won handily by West. Murphy’s inexperience as a candidate and the poor Democratic infrastructure in this area have become major liabilities in recent weeks. West, much like Grayson is a polarizing figure but is in a favorable district and should win.

CD 22 Moved to Toss Up

Republican Adam Hasner has done a remarkable job of reinventing himself following years of overt right-wing dogma. More on this race here.

CD-26 Remains Toss-Up

Based on my personal experience, I trust very few polls done in Cuban-American areas of Miami-Dade County if done by a non Hispanic/Latino local pollster. Based on this, I am not sure polls done in English language by non local firms can be relied upon. Most of these polls show Garcia with a decisive advantage, but in the past these polls have almost always exaggerated Democratic strengths. Still David Rivera will need a heavy turnout among older Cuban-Americans to win. This area is trending towards the Democrats and it is entirely possible this is one of the only places in the country where Obama will be much stronger in 2012  than he was in 2008. Garcia is a slight favorite, but by no means a strong bet at this point.

Full ratings after the jump.

Safe Democratic
FL-5 (Brown)
FL- 14 (Castor )
FL- 20 (Hastings)
FL-21 (Deutch)
FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz)
FL-24 (Wilson)

Likely Democratic


Leans Democratic

FL-9 (Open)

FL- Senate (Nelson)

Toss Up

FL-2 (Southerland)

FL 22 (Open)

FL-26 (Rivera)

Leans Republican

FL-18 (West)

Likely Republican

FL- 6 (Open)

FL-10 (Webster)

FL-13 (Young)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

Safe Republican

FL-1 (Miller)
FL-3 (Stearns*)
FL-4 (Crenshaw)
FL-7 (Mica)
FL- 8 (Posey)
FL-11 (Nugent)
FL-12 ( Bilirakis)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-17 (Rooney)
FL-19 (Open)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
* Stearns lost the GOP primary to Ted Yoho


5 thoughts on “Congressional Race Ratings – October 21: A Look at the Five Closest Races

  1. I agree with Jeff.

    We have a poll with Murphy up 9 yet it leans Republican??????

    Come on KK! Just plain wrong here.

  2. That poll was a few weeks ago and clearly an outlier. West has an advantage and Murphy seems to have lost whatever momentum he had. His campaign has also made some voters sympathize with West, something that was seems impossible.

  3. Murphy is so weak. This is what happens when you have Eric Johnson making money only in primaries. Murphy is an R running with Crist….when Florida loses it all maybe they will take Johnson, Deutch, Wexler, Aaronson and company with them. Deutch will loose his appeal soon. Look out for Tara Laxer. I hear Laxer has big plans. The activists love her and she is smart, young and HOT. The excitement about her potential is spreading and people are excited!!!! I cannot wait to see what she does!

  4. She is not running. Deutch is good. Wexler, Aaronson and Johnson are sick puppies. Murphy is a sweetheart but not so bright.

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