Congressional Race Ratings – November 2: CD-2 Moved

It appears Al Lawson’s momentum in CD-2 has run into a brick wall thanks to Mitt Romney’s high performance in the area. Romney is poised to gain at least 55% of the vote in this sprawling north Florida district based on early voting from the area. Lawson does have some crossover support, and the race is still rated as a “toss-up.” However, we are now calling it a “Republican Favored” toss-up which is the same rating we give Alan West’s CD-18. We do believe at this moment in time though that Lawson still has a better chance of winning than West challenger Patrick Murphy, but Southerland is now a favorite once again.


Safe Democratic
FL-5 (Brown)
FL- 14 (Castor )
FL- 20 (Hastings)
FL-21 (Deutch)
FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz)
FL-24 (Wilson)

Likely Democratic

FL-9 (Open)

Leans Democratic

FL-22 (Open)

FL-26 (Rivera)

FL- Senate (Nelson)

Toss Up



Leans Republican

FL-10 (Webster)

Likely Republican

FL- 6 (Open)

FL-13 (Young)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

Safe Republican

FL-1 (Miller)
FL-3 (Stearns*)
FL-4 (Crenshaw)
FL-7 (Mica)
FL- 8 (Posey)
FL-11 (Nugent)
FL-12 ( Bilirakis)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-17 (Rooney)
FL-19 (Open)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
* Stearns lost the GOP primary to Ted Yoho


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