Last week I created a method to determine the likelihood that Democrats would retain certain seats. When I created this method, I considered three important factors.
First, I looked at the voter registration gap of a district. Naturally the more a district leans toward one of the two major parties, the more of a likelihood that party would win.
Second, campaign contributions were looked at and factored into the equation. Examining some close historic races in Florida House elections, favorable financial conditions could account for a 2.5% to 10% bump in Election Day results. Therefore, I took the current campaign contribution numbers, examined the difference between the candidates of each party with the highest contribution totals, and then determined a number based on that difference.
Finally, I took an average of the most recent polling numbers for statewide offices. This takes the average of the last three polls for governor and attorney general (with all match ups possible). This average will be used as a thermometer to determine the current temperature of the electorate. Since Florida is becoming a straight-ticket state and House races can mirror top-ticket races, these numbers should be a good indicator of current electoral feelings. Also, once the primary is over, these polling averages should be more accurate.
One factor that has not been included is incumbency. The reason for this is that purely being an incumbent does not show whether you are a strong or weak incumbent. If an incumbent is strong, his or her campaign contributions should indicate whether that is the case. Also, candidates running against strong incumbents will probably have much lower campaign contributions, thus showing a major gap. Therefore, campaign contributions are being used to measure incumbency.
After running these numbers, here are the following odds for Democrats to win each of the 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives, listing the current incumbent. These numbers are on a scale of 0-100, with zero indicating no chance for a Democrat to be elected and 100 being a certainty that a Democrat will be elected. Numbers under 50 shows a trend toward the Republicans while a number higher than 50 shows a trend toward the Democrats.
|25||Hood Jr. (Open)||0|
|103||Diaz Jr., M.||23.72|
These are the first numbers that have been released and are certain to change. These numbers will be updated after each financial report is published on the Division of Election’s website. Also, numbers could change drastically after the primary, as the likelihood of a high-financed candidate being knocked out of a primary is always present. Tuesday, I will go into these numbers further to explain the key seats in the upcoming election.