Hillary Clinton squandered 4.3% Florida lead in a matter of 12 hours.

11-14-15-hillary-clinton-cbs-debateDemocrats, particularly in Florida, pride themselves on the fact that they have a great early and vote-by-mail system. And regardless of what you think about the Democratic Party structure, they actually do. Prior to votes being cast on Election Day, more Democrats had turned out to vote than Republicans in Florida. However, Election Day changed everything.

I decided to look at the votes that were cast before Election Day in every county except three, Escambia, Jefferson, DeSoto, because did not have data for them at all (though I will try to get the data in the coming days). Looking at all of the votes that were cast before Election Day, Hillary Clinton had 50.4% of the vote in Florida, with Trump only having 46.1%. That is a healthy 4.3% lead, with Clinton leading in Pinellas, St. Lucie, Duval, and even Seminole County. Here are the maps that show the breakdown of the vote.

On Election Day, it was a different story. Of those who cast votes on Election Day, Trump had won 53.6% of the vote, with Clinton only winning a dismal 41.5%. Clinton lost the Election Day vote in Pinellas, St. Lucie, Duval, Seminole and Hillsborough counties. Votes for minor party candidates jumped from 2.7% to 4.0%. But what is most shocking is not the counties she lost, but the swing in strong and leaning Democratic counties. Here is a list of “must win” counties for Democrats, and how they performed in the advanced polls and on Election Day:

Alachua County: 63.2% Advanced, 50.4% Election Day

Broward County: 69.2% Advanced, 56.9% Election Day

Palm Beach County: 61.3% Advanced, 49.8% Election Day

Hillsborough County: 53.5% Advanced, 46.6% Election Day

Orange County: 62.1% Advanced, 53.0% Election Day.

St. Lucie County: 50.6% Advanced, 39.4% Election Day.

Obviously, Democrats had an “Election Day problem” in Florida. Was that because of the Comey’s involvement? Maybe? Was that because Democrats didn’t show up to vote? Probably. Either way, Democrats might dominate pre-Election Day polling, but it was twelve hours on November 8th that cost Clinton the presidency.


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